Dr Maks's Key Ideas from The Book of Why
by Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie

Pearl developed a ladder with 3 steps:

Seeing - finding connections between events

Doing - taking action to affect outcomes

Imagining - exploring alternative scenarios

To be truly intelligent, one must climb this ladder. 🧠

Statistics reveal "what is," but that isn't always enough. Understanding "what could be" and "what would have happened" requires causal reasoning.

• Statistics show us the current state of things.
• But to fully understand a situation, we need to consider other possibilities.
• That's where causal reasoning comes in.

Using causal reasoning, we can explore the potential outcomes and consequences of different scenarios, providing a more complete understanding of a situation.

Visual models like Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) can help us understand links between factors and minimize biases, such as confounding variables.

They show us how one event or exposure leads to another and happen before it.

To understand the effects of taking action, it's important to distinguish between observation and intervention. This process, known as causal inference, is more than just analyzing data.

Key concepts:

• Intervention
• Causal inference
• Data mining

Asking "What if I had done X instead of Y?" helps us learn, plan, and assign responsibility.

Judea Pearl asserts that simply gathering data is not enough to grasp causality. Instead, we need to create causal models that incorporate assumptions and establish relationships between variables.

Through causal modeling, we can identify key insights and patterns to better understand cause and effect. This allows us to answer questions such as "When A happens, what can we expect for B?" and make informed decisions based on data-driven evidence.

Don't be fooled by data! 📊🚫 Just because something happened, doesn't mean it caused it. Use reasoning to understand beyond what is seen.

- Data can't predict with certainty what would have happened 🤔

- Keep asking why something happened, until you understand the underlying causes 🔍

To fully comprehend the world, solve issues, or make choices, we need to concentrate on "why" things occur, not just on data. Understanding "why" gives us the insight to make better decisions.

Why should we focus on "why"?

• Allows for a deeper understanding of an issue or problem
• Provides insight for better decision-making
• Gives context to the data and the "what" in a situation
• Leads to more effective problem-solving

🤔🔍🚀